NOAA National Weather Service forecasters are predicting an above-normal hurricane season thanks to near-record warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean and La Nina conditions in the Pacific, the agency announced Thursday morning.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher, will form this season. Of those, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes, which are defined as category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of 111 mph or higher. Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
Overall, forecasters say there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
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Top forecasters from Colorado State University earlier this spring said they expected an “extremely active” hurricane season, predicting the highest number of storms since they began issuing predictions in 1995.
The Colorado forecast was similar to NOAA’s—23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
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A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven spinning into hurricanes.
This story originally appeared in a May 23 issue of Daily Report. To keep up with Baton Rouge business and politics, subscribe to the free Daily Report e-newsletter here.